Is Inventory Really the Answer?

With inventory rising in markets like Kelowna and across BC, economics 101 and the mainstream narrative would have you believe that home prices should be falling in Kelowna. But let’s look at the bigger picture—because higher inventory alone isn’t the magic solution to affordability. It’s not just about more homes, it’s about the right homes—and right now, that’s where the disconnect is happening.

Prices continue to climb. In Kelowna, the benchmark price for residential homes hit $853,741 in March 2025 we just had the second highest March average residential price which peaked in March of 2022 at $951,000— in 2025 we are up from $809,035 just a year ago, $822,154 in 2023, and still well above the 10-year average of $642,261 and $765, 026 in 2021. Even with sales down compared to the 10-year average and inventory up 57%, pricing hasn’t followed the script. That’s because it’s not just about numbers on a spreadsheet—it’s about real-world dynamics.

Micro and macroeconomic pressures are pushing in opposite directions. On one hand, we're seeing major volatility—$6 trillion wiped off North American stock markets last week, Canada shedding 53,000 jobs (the first significant drop since 2022), and wage growth slowing to 3.5%. These are clear signals that employers are easing up and the economy is cooling. And yet, inflationary pressures from tariffs are driving up the cost of materials, making it more expensive to build homes—especially the “affordable” ones that are so desperately needed.

But we already did have a lost decade in GDP growth or lack there of.

BC’s GDP however has been fairing better than most other provinces.

So yes, interest rates may come down out of necessity, especially if job losses continue. That could stimulate demand again. But with inflation and construction costs staying high, the price of housing may not soften the way many expect with the job losses—or even the hope of them softening.

It may or may not be the right time to do something in the real estate market right now, the truth is, statistics can be skewed to tell whatever story suits the moment. That's why it’s more important than ever to take a personalized approach—whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to figure out how this all impacts your financial picture.

If you do want a personalized approach for your situation and if it makes sense, reach out for a customized no obligation plan. The market is complex right now, and as we head into an election year with housing affordability front and center, understanding your specific situation matters more than trying to time the market based on headlines.

We are in a shift, where we may see prices and inflation continue to increase but interest rates continuing to drop. Creating a dynamic most economists have no way to predict, real estate is not about timing the market it is more about time in the market.

Hope you have a great week,

Mark and Maddie Coons

(W)778-744-0872

(C) 250-801-0361