Kelowna Real Estate Market Forecast – 2025 Outlook

Building on last week’s forecast from BMO, this week we’re taking a closer look at what CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) and BCREA (British Columbia Real Estate Association) are predicting for the year ahead—and what it could mean for Kelowna’s real estate market.

With ongoing trade tensions and shifting economic conditions, market predictions feel more uncertain than ever. While forecasts provide a roadmap, the reality is that external pressures could shift expectations at any time. That said, both CREA and BCREA have released their latest outlooks for 2025, and there are some key takeaways worth noting.

Kelowna’s Buyer Trends & Market Movement

Kelowna has traditionally benefited from strong out-of-town buyer demand, with nearly 50% of buyers coming from outside the Okanagan. However, as home prices in Kelowna surged over the past few years while many feeder markets didn’t see the same level of appreciation, the affordability gap has grown. This has led to a decline in out-of-town buyers, dropping to 35% in Q4 of 2024.

Looking ahead, CREA is forecasting a 4.7% increase in home prices across Canada in 2025 but noted that “outside of British Columbia and Ontario, these kinds of price gains—and some even larger ones—are already well underway.” This could mean Kelowna’s prices stay relatively stable while other regions play catch-up.

BCREA’s 2025 Forecast & Market Activity

BCREA’s latest First Quarter Housing Forecast (released January 27th) projects a 14% increase in home sales in 2025 after a relatively flat 2024. With inventory levels returning to healthier levels across BC, they expect the market to absorb this increased activity without a sharp rise in prices. That said, following a year of price stagnation, they anticipate BC’s average home price will rise 4.5% in 2025, driven by renewed housing demand.

For Kelowna, single-family homes typically see higher-than-average price growth, and with Q4 2024 sales surging, BCREA has already revised its 2025 forecast—now predicting an 8.6% increase in total sales volume, up from their initial 6.6% projection.

External Factors & What to Watch For

This year is shaping up to be one of the hardest to predict, with external economic pressures playing a major role in housing trends. Some positive signs for buyers include:✅ Lower interest rates, with another cut announced today✅ Easier access to higher mortgage amounts, thanks to federal policy adjustments

On the flip side, there are still uncertainties that could impact the economy:⚠ Trade tensions with the U.S. and stalled negotiations⚠ A prorogued Parliament, delaying key economic decisions

All in all, while Kelowna’s market isn’t expected to skyrocket this year, there are strong indicators that demand will remain steady, and sales will pick up as the year progresses.

Let me know if you have any questions about the current market or how these forecasts might impact your real estate goals

Mark and Maddie Coons

778-744-0872