Navigating the 2024 Real Estate Market:
Trends and Opportunities for Buyers and Sellers
2024 so far has seen a shift in activity in the housing market as we approach the last quarter of the year we are going to try to make some sense on what is going on. My perception on the current market is it is confused and rightfully so. Being a provincial election year and tensions high at the federal level ahead of the 2025 election the confusion is just compounding amidst the mixed messaging.
Regardless of political viewpoint, the current NDP government is sending the message that home prices and rents are coming down, and at an aim to earn votes are sending the message to voters this will continue, yet is the reality different on you have Conservatives highlighting the high cost of living and debt? Ahead of the election it appears the election platforms are creating more confusion as potential home buyers expect prices to continue to come down but with building permits down across the province and immigration which has been at an all time high in Canada, what does the true market dynamics show?
I digress however, in weeks to come we will look at the provincial parties platforms and offer market insight to help you make educated decisions at the polls next month regardless of which way you vote.
As we move into the final months of 2024, the real estate market has seen some noticeable changes. Many buyers have paused their decision-making, waiting for better conditions or more stability in the market. But for those still looking to buy or sell, this presents unique opportunities or frustration. Let’s take a closer look at the trends so far in 2024 and what they mean for you.
2024 Market Trends: A Year of Fluctuations
This year, we’ve seen a clear shift in the relationship between asking prices and sale prices, which has created more room for negotiation. Sellers have had to lower their expectations, while buyers are increasingly taking advantage of opportunities to secure deals below the initial asking price.
One of the standout trends in 2024 is the growing gap between original asking prices and actual sale prices. Many homes are being listed at prices higher than what the market is currently supporting, leading to confusion among buyers. Often, buyers see ambitious price tags but find, after reviewing market history, that homes in the same area are selling for 10-15% less than the asking price. While not all properties are the same and specific factors can influence price, this disparity has made it harder for buyers to understand the true value of a home.
This inconsistency is leading to buyer hesitation, as many are unsure whether a home is overpriced or if they should wait for a price reduction. In a market where sellers are holding out for higher prices and buyers are wary of overpaying, fewer transactions are taking place. The uncertainty surrounding the gap between some asking and sale prices is leaving buyers in a state of indecision, slowing the market overall. To address this, when representing sellers, one strategy we use is to invite other agents to tour the home and offer feedback on the price. While it’s ultimately the buyers who dictate value, this approach helps gauge if a property may be priced too high.
For both buyers and sellers, accurate pricing is crucial in this fluctuating market. Sellers who set their prices too high may struggle to get offers, while buyers who are unsure of true market value could miss out on opportunities. The gap between listing and selling prices highlights the importance of realistic pricing to facilitate successful transactions
The Gap Between Asking and Selling Prices: What Does It Mean?
One of the biggest takeaways from 2024 is the negotiation room reflected in the sale-to-ask price ratio. In some neighborhoods, this ratio is below 97%, showing that there’s a significant gap between what sellers are asking for and what buyers are willing to pay. This wider gap can cause properties to sit on the market longer, especially when sellers hold out for higher prices.
See where your neighbourhood stacks up in the chart above, but for instance, in Lakeview Heights, homes have been selling for about 96.9% of their asking price. Similarly, in Upper Mission, homes are selling for 97.0% of their asking price. This sale-to-ask price ratio reveals that many properties are moving at a discount compared to their listed price, and buyers have been negotiating effectively.
In Rutland South, homes are selling for 98.2% of their asking price, showing a smaller gap between asking and sale prices compared to other areas. This indicates that while sellers here are still negotiating, they’re generally getting closer to their asking prices
In areas like Glenmore, homes are selling for around 97.6% of the asking price, which suggests that buyers are finding opportunities to negotiate, but sellers are still managing to sell close to their list prices. This gap is a reflection of the current market conditions, where buyers are being more cautious, and sellers who price more realistically are seeing their homes move faster.
For sellers, this gap between asking and selling prices might mean that overpricing could be the reason your property isn’t selling. One effective way to address this is by hosting Realtor tours, where other real estate agents give feedback on the price and condition of your home. This strategy can help ensure that your home is priced correctly and positioned to sell in a more competitive market.
Advice for Buyers: Use the Negotiation Room to Your Advantage
If you’re a buyer, this is an excellent time to take advantage of the negotiation room that exists in the market. With homes selling below their asking prices in many areas, you have a good opportunity to negotiate a deal that works in your favor. For example, in Lakeview Heights and Upper Mission, the sale-to-ask price ratios show that buyers are getting homes for around 3-4% less than the asking price, leaving room for negotiation.
Acting now could give you a leg up before the spring market kicks in. Many buyers are holding off, meaning less competition for you in the short term. Additionally, with the sale-to-ask price ratio in neighborhoods like Rutland South still below 100%, you have room to negotiate without facing too much competition from other buyers.
However, if you decide to wait until spring, you should be aware that the market could shift again. While we expect demand to increase in spring 2025, with new buyers—both local and from out of town—entering the market, it’s uncertain how prices will behave. Government policies and economic factors could influence whether prices remain stable or begin to rise.
Advice for Sellers: Price Competitively or Wait for Spring
For sellers, the most important strategy right now is pricing your home competitively. The sale-to-ask price ratio shows that in many areas, homes are selling for 96% to 98% of their asking prices. This means that homes priced too high may sit on the market longer, while homes that are priced closer to what buyers are willing to pay are moving more quickly.
If you need to sell before the end of 2024, now is the time to make an aggressive push by adjusting your price to be more competitive. In areas like Upper Mission and Lakeview Heights, where the sale-to-ask ratio is hovering around 97%, homes priced in line with the market are still moving. Hosting Realtor tours can also help you fine-tune your pricing strategy based on professional feedback.
On the other hand, if you can afford to wait, holding off until spring 2025 might be a good strategy. With more buyers expected to enter the market, you could have a better chance of selling at a higher price. However, the market is uncertain, and while some experts predict prices will remain stable, government policies and other factors could change the landscape quickly.
Looking Forward: Spring 2025 and Beyond
While spring 2025 is expected to bring more buyers into the market, the current fluctuation means that the future remains uncertain. Government policies, change in Government, changes in interest rates, and economic conditions could all affect whether prices remain stable, drop or start to rise again. If I were to guess, right now I would take the latter especially in Kelowna which is a desirable place to live and offers much more than other cities in Canada offer. Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, staying informed and prepared is key to navigating these uncertain times.
Mark and Maddie Coons
(W)778-744-0872
(C)250-801-0361
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