Shifting Trends in the BC Housing Market:What’s Next for Buyers and Sellers?

People are making different choices about where they want to live, and that is changing the housing market in new ways. According to U-Haul’s latest City Growth Report for Canada, Kelowna has dropped to #23 on the list of growing cities after being in the top 10 for the past five years. This report looks at both homebuyers and renters, so it gives us a good picture of how people are moving.

One big shift is that more people are leaving BC than moving in from other provinces. As of Q3 2024, BC has seen five straight quarters where more people moved out than in, with most heading to Alberta. Alberta continues to be the top Canadian province for net migration, with Calgary ranked as the #1 growth city for the second year in a row, followed closely by Edmonton. The reason? Lower living costs, better job opportunities, and more affordable housing make Alberta a popular choice. Many of those leaving BC are likely doing so because of the high cost of living.

But one thing hasn’t changed about BC—its natural beauty and mild climate. These are still big reasons why people want to live here, even as affordability remains a challenge but as other markets like Alberta increase in pricing due the increase in demand, it will allocate more funds to buyers looking to enter our market.

Despite these shifts, we’re already seeing signs that the market is picking up, with more homes selling recently. First-time buyers are still leading the way, making up 23% of all home purchases in 2024. In 2025, new mortgage rules could shake things up even more. These changes will make it easier to get loans for homes priced between $1M and $1.5M, which could bring more move-up buyers into the market.

This shift may also encourage baby boomers to downsize, offering their current homes to the move up buyers,  as they look for the best options in retirement. Of course, no one can predict exactly how the market will respond.

As people adjust to these new trends, there are still great opportunities for buying and selling, especially for those staying within the same market. Keeping up with these changes will help buyers and sellers make smart decisions.

That said, these reports show past trends, and new ones are already forming. Interest rates are starting to come down, which should give buyers more spending power. This spring will be a key moment to see how the market reacts.

Right now, there’s a lot of positive energy in real estate. To us, it’s not just pent-up demand—it’s growing confidence in the market as interest rates drop. In the coming weeks, we’ll get a clearer picture of what this year will look like for both buyers and sellers.

Mark and Maddie Coons

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